Louisiana 37-point swing toward Democrats

did:plc:fezsm5jgsec6otkheigsru5m · 2026-02-08T10:53:09.803Z

So am I to understand the GOP did NOT flip a seat last night? I thought they were set to win a seat in Louisiana?

Posts reference a '37-point swing' in a Louisiana state seat toward Democrats, question whether the GOP flipped the seat, and include phrases like 'buy plane tickets out of the country' and 'GOP did NOT flip a seat.'

Created 6 days ago • 23 documents • Range: 2/8 10:53am – 2/8 4:13pm

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23 documents • Time range: Until 2/14 • Sort by: Relevance

2/8/26, 04:13 PM
dems overperform in specials dems generally don't turn R+13 into D+23
2/8/26, 04:10 PM
This Louisiana state district has been reliably Democratic for the past 15 years. This is not a shift in voter preferences at that more local level.
2/8/26, 03:46 PM
37 point swing in a state seat in Louisiana is a huge sign of a big shift in the south! bsky.app/profile/wofa...
2/8/26, 03:42 PM
Based on the returns in 24 for the 14 precincts in Leander, Trump had 53.9% of the vote, Harris had 44.1%… of the 30,370 votes cast. A 10 point margin. So this 14 point dem win represents a swing of roughly 24%! Texas is swinging, y’all.
The Democrats outright flipping the near Republican supermajority in the Iowa General Assembly would be extremely funny....
2/8/26, 03:38 PM
The Senate looks basically impossible, they'd have to break through in some >R+20 seats.
2/8/26, 03:38 PM
I can tell you one thing, Louisiana is not the state to try and make sense of electoral trends with
2/8/26, 03:28 PM
You got Louisianans voting for Chastity. Woke?
2/8/26, 03:21 PM
The Democrats outright flipping the near Republican supermajority in the Iowa General Assembly would be extremely funny. That doesn't seem likely but like, look at those shifts in Texas and Louisiana.
I hate the dire pessimism. The house to the dems does not hinge on Perry winning or losing. Have they not seen the sp...
2/8/26, 02:28 PM
I'm amazed at the @cookpolitical.com rating. The 1.1% win by the GOP in '24 is trivial compared to the swings we are seeing in the special elections.
2/8/26, 02:18 PM
Also I deleted my skeet about LA’s election. I still think it matters bc yeah the old guy was a Dem but that literally means nothing in Louisiana; Landry would not appoint a liberal Dem to anything, and would only do it if he expected another conservative Dem or possibly GOP would win.
"Message for the Ride Or Die Community."
2/8/26, 02:10 PM
I'm excited about Democratic Party wins also but that was not a flip. That was a blue district held by Chad Brown.
2/8/26, 01:42 PM
When I saw the races in Mississippi last year and those wins for Dems, I thought Louisiana is in play. Don’t know why the DNC can’t/won’t try…
2/8/26, 01:36 PM
Doesn't change the fact that the seat had the potential to flip. It's not a safe Blue seat if it goes Red for the top of the ticket by 13%. I'm not sure why this is a point of contention for you.
This was supposed to be a rare pickup opportunity for the GOP.
"This was supposed to be a rare pickup opportunity for the GOP."
2/8/26, 01:29 PM
Yep. This is why so many of us in Louisiana that have been on the ground working and supporting campaigns like this one have zero time for cynicism and doomers. People down here are furious. Our Trumpist governor is wildly unpopular. Lots of opportunities to make inroads. 💙
2/8/26, 01:11 PM
Does anyone have more specifics about how this campaign was run/won? Candidate quality, messaging, demographics, etc. I totally buy the broad D shift premise but want to make sure I/we see the whole picture and don't extrapolate this into "Dems pick up 140 house seats" delirium
2/8/26, 12:43 PM
argh the math here is so bad it's not a 37 point swing, obviously she won a Dem seat in a solidly red province already. How well she did *yesterday* compared to *her last election* is more relevant if you are trying to say things are swinging the Dems' way
This is a *does some quick math* 37-point swing toward the Democrats. The GOP thought this would be a really strong cha...
"This is a *does some quick math* 37-point swing toward the Democrats. The GOP thought this would be a really strong chance to flip a seat in their favor. Once again, this is a "buy plane tickets out of the country"-level red flag for the Republicans."
2/8/26, 12:22 PM
you simply love to see it
2/8/26, 12:06 PM
The previous rep was a Dem who won the seat in 2015, he ran unopposed in 2019 AND 2023. This may have been a Trump congressional district, but it has been a solid democrat stronghold for over 10 years 🤷‍♀️
2/8/26, 11:32 AM
Democrat wins special election in Louisiana district Trump won by 13 points
LUISANA AHORA TAMBIÉN DEMOCRATA PARECE QUE TRUMP VA PERDIENDO PODER QUE CREÍA SEGURO 🔐 👇
"LUISANA AHORA TAMBIÉN DEMOCRATA PARECE QUE TRUMP VA PERDIENDO PODER QUE CREÍA SEGURO 🔐 👇"
2/8/26, 11:13 AM
A ver si espabilan de una vez 🤷‍♀️
That will definitely be a winning message in a Trump +14 state
2/8/26, 11:11 AM
Dems have been handily winning trump +13 districts, lately. 😊
2/8/26, 11:06 AM
That is impressive. I love the wins in Mississippi also! 3 big ones democrats turned
2/8/26, 10:53 AM
So am I to understand the GOP did NOT flip a seat last night? I thought they were set to win a seat in Louisiana?

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Louisiana 37-point swing toward Democrats